Service Update Mon 3rd Feb 2014
It was disappointing to see a loss on our feature HomerDog at Genoa but was happy that the pick was right as there were enough chances in this frantic local derby for a 3-3 results. Two disallowed goals scuppered a win but to be fair they were both well offside. We avoided the big game at City as we predicted a low scoring affair and got that spot on too. While our footy was struggling, Emeralds two Bowls selections came up trumps as both hot favourites were beaten. A nice profit of £49 for £10 stakes. That takes the overall profit in this tourney to £64. He really knows his Bowls so take advantage of his skills in this field while the tourney is in it's opening rounds. We have two more selections today. I was rather hoping for a BARTMAN3.5 at Bristol City but with U3.5 currently at 1.42 it's too much to ask. We could wait for the price inplay but an early goal is likely so best to focus on BMS if liquidity allows. As usual we will look for any in-play opportunities. For the purposes of the new blog, selections of Rags, Bowls or the footy list are not shown. Bowls results to £10 stakes. Prices are from Stan James 18.00 Jonathan Ross (rank 13) 1.44 vs Gary Smith (unranked) 2.62 WON £16 19.30 Thompson (rank 4) 1.16 vs Dennison (unranked) 4.30 WON...
Read MoreService Update Sun 2nd Feb 2014
A great couple of sessions made it ten profitable days from the last thirteen and £178 at full stakes. Our opening trade was at WBA with our fairly new Hotdog CS trade. It went like clockwork for a £10 profit a half stakes. Our Bartman3.5 at Rennes had a 72% chance of success and was going well at 1-0 when Lyon went down to ten shortly before half time. We decided to abort £1.50 down which turned out to be the correct decision as continuing could have seen up to a £15 loss. Redkopper took the evening session which was over very quick as the Marseille Bartman3.5 collected £10.50 at half stakes inside ten minutes. Emeralds four Bowls recommendations had a winner. That was all that was needed to make an overall £15 profit as you will see below how short all the favourites were. It could have been even better as Walker lost by just a single point. There are two more matched today where he recommends we back the outsider. There were no Rags picks but overall the selections are £60 in profit since we started during the middle of last...
Read MoreService Update Sat 1st Feb 2014
It was a very frustrating day. There were only two losing trades on the list and we were on both of them. Clive planned to do both Twist star picks and the EHDActive at Stoke but the console went down shortly before kick off due to a remote server problem and didn't come back online until 17:10. This has only happened twice in the last 26 months. There would have been two winners and a scratch. To add to our woes I decided to wait at Milan to see how the game started. It was all Milan with Torino struggling to get out of their own half. I rejected the trade and switched to the Getafe HomerHT. Torino scored and that game was an above average winner while Getafe ended 0-0. The Bowls International Open stars today and Emerald (who is our resident International Bowls player) gives his thoughts on today's opening round matches. There are some high prices that he feels are big value. It only needs one winner from the four games to show a healthy profit. Stan James offer the best prices but you can get on with Bet365 too but not as...
Read MoreBuckle My Shoe – A Great Strategy
I have seen countless strategies over many years and have to say that BMS is one of the best CS strategies I have ever come across. Good wins when the goals go in and minimal losses when they don't. That's the only formula you need when trading football. Virtually any game can be selected. The concept was conceived by Redkopper and I could instantly see the big potential. We are a great team as Redk comes up with many ideas (some totally whacky) and I hone the staking, cover and exit points to give optimum performance. Rather like adding a melody to lyrics. Since that starting point we have both worked hard at carving out a strategy that now has decent profits across the CS market with strong cover if a lack of goals whilst continuing to preserve the bigger profits on 3-2, 2-3. We have played out different variations at the console over the last few weeks as the strategy has been put through heavy testing and we are now getting very close to finalising the bets. It is simple, effective and very profitable. I have had so many emails asking me to document it but we have both decided that we will publish it in newsletter form only, rather than our usual PDF. I am going to explain the full BMS concept in the newsletter tomorrow. A strategy that we are recommending be traded for games where U2.5 is greater than 2.20 but in reality the only restriction for selection is for AUQ to be at least 6. If under 2.5 is low and you think otherwise, then go for it. Redk has always been betting on doubles, trebles and beyond and has shown considerable success so it's time to put him under the spotlight and follow his tips too see if he ends up with rags or riches! His tips will be shown in the newsletter as and when they are available. Check out todays rags or riches selections further down this newsletter. Gillingham was another example of how a lack of goals results in a small loss at worst. Redkopper disappeared at half time to wander into oblivion so I took up the baton . The Bartman-Twist feature in Chile was a bit of an after thought and we fell one goal short. Today we have some tricky cup games where Prem teams will be fielding squad players. We will be trading BMS at Norwich and Arsenal whilst looking to jump on games at Yeovil, Valladolid. Thats a potential of four console lead games. I may also trade the Naked Apple at Valencia if I am not too tired. The early game at Blackburn disappointingly provides no opportunities. Even Manchester City to not keep a clean sheet is 1.71 so we start the action at the console from 14:40 when i will be staking the BMS at Norwich....
Read MoreQPR – My View
At the end of yesterdays game it was interesting to see Nelson, Mackie, Derry and Taarabt go over to applaud the fans. These were the four players who were the only one's that could be seen to put in 100% for the cause of QPR's plight! The others sountered off seemingly without a care in the world as long as they received their wages. I have been a season ticket holder since 1973 and have witnessed many trials and tribulations over the past 40 years but Saturdays game against Southampton has to be one of the worst performances I have ever seen. It is over 11 years since the dark day of relegation to League 1 but at least those far less skilled players made some sort of effort to survive the drop. This was such a critical game for both teams. Southampton had not picked up a single away point before the clash but despite this they were full off positivity as every one of their players put their heart and soul into it. In contrast most of the QPR team were not up for it. Marking, off the ball positioning, lack of covering was the sort of thing you would see in a Sunday morning lower division game on Hackney Marshes. It was so shocking it was difficult to comprehend what I was actually watching. It is clear to every QPR supporter that if those poorly performing players could not raise their game in such an important clash then no fixture will do it! It has been the same since the very first home game but fans have always been supportive of the team, understanding that it takes time for the team to gel. However there has been no improvement. In fact the performances have got worse at a time where fixtures have put us against other relegation rivals. Before I give my view on the manager and his negative tactics, lets look at my view of the players performance. Cesar. When he first arrived at the club his performance was solid but I think that with such a poor defence in front of him his own game is being affected. He certainly doesn't command his 6 yard area on crosses like he did earlier in the season. I read somewhere that he had the choice of joining either Arsenal or QPR and you have to wonder why he didn't chose Arsenal. Arsenal's wage structure is very tight so was it financial reasons? Boswinga was not at the races. Out of position, never covered and just generally jogged around. Can't make a simple pass. This is not just yesterday but every game. I know plenty of Chelsea friends who have never rated him but have never seen him playing as bad as he is at present. He gave the impression that he was totally disinterested and Hughes probably thought the same as he was substituted. Traore is there to defend but that has never been his strong point. Ask any Arsenal fan. He prefers to push forward but like Boswinga he is slow to track back to the position he is played at and doesn't seem to go 100% into a tackle. Ferdinand was one of our better defenders last year. He was solid and dependable. This season he is a shadow of that player. Has the incident with Terry had more of an impact than is thought? Or does he lack support to the way Hughes runs the team? He was outclassed yesterday and the way he lazily stuck out his foot for the own goal...
Read MoreEHD Day
Yesterday was EHD day where we traded three games with this strategy. The EHD or Extreme HomerDog relates to games where the home team is the overwhelming underdog. No searching through stats and form will find any genuine reason why the games should be selected. There is just one positive factor and that is that the weak team has the home advantage. We don't care whether they are going to win the game, just that they can score and preferably in the first half. Even if they don't score we will not lose if they get hammered. It's a powerful strategy and whilst the ratio of winning trades are less, the reward for a win is an above average profit. Possibly 4 or 5 times higher. We didn't have to wait long to secure our first console trade. Genoa opened the scoring and the trade was a guaranteed win. We had the choice of exiting with £13, waiting for an unders finish which was £18 or an overs finish of £9. These were at half stakes so the maximum loss was £12. Some took the £13 whilst I decided to hold and wait for fate to take it's course. It finished as an overs result. The second console EHD trade was Sochaux v Lyon. It was a lively game and Lyon opened the scoring which is always progress as 0-1 is a far better position than 0-0. This meant we had longer in our trade. The home goal arrived but unfortunately it was too late for us. A third goal would gave scratched the trade but it was not to be which meant a loss of £12 at half stakes. We saved the best until last in our final game in Greece. AEK v Olympiakos had the highest home MO price of all three therefore greater rewards. It was a game that was dominated by Olympiakos who not only are the better team, they were also playing most of the game against 10 men. Olympiakos took the lead which meant we could continue in the trade until around 60 mins and possibly longer thanks to the red card. The away team extended their lead on 57 minutes at which point members could exit the trade with a small profit but the carrot of a jackpot or Overs win kept us in the trade. Normally the MLE (Max Loss Exit) which at half stakes is £12 is normally reached on 78 minutes but in a game where Olympiakos were totally on top against 10 men but the under 2.5 was not reducing and we were in an incredible position of the MLE not being reached at 85 mins. I was just about to give the order to exit when the score became 0-3. We had now won the trade whatever happened but securing our 0-3 hedge in case of another goal was most important. Thankfully members had achieved this before the fourth goal arrived. The profit was £23 at half stakes with risking only £12. The goal on 85 minutes is the latest time before the exit strategy is executed. This surpassed 82 minutes in the Spain v Italy Euro Championship final. This is against 656 recorded Homer strategy games that I have picked/traded either at the console or prior to that lead on another service. That is now 1 loss from 7 Homer trades. 10 losses in 37 Homer trades. These wins are very welcome especially as my console trades went through a dark period for 4 weeks from mid August. The longest bad run since I introduced the...
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